perceptions of progressive social change
Definition
Perceptions of progressive social change refers to individuals' assessments of the likelihood and desirability of positive societal transformation, particularly as these bear on the status and recognition of historically disadvantaged groups. Among LGBTQ+ participants surveyed across five waves from 2017 to 2025, these perceptions declined steadily over time, with the sharpest shift coinciding with the onset of the second Trump presidency. At the individual level, perceiving progressive change as more possible correlated positively with positive emotions and collective efficacy but negatively with minority group identification and desires to preserve identity, a pattern suggesting that optimism about social trajectories may reduce felt urgency around identity consolidation. Path analyses confirmed that declining perceptions of progressive change predicted increases in minority identification, which in turn buffered emotional and identity-related outcomes.
Sources: Morton & Salvatore (2026)
Related Terms
- collective identification (1 shared article)
- identity vigilance (1 shared article)
- LGBTQ+ (1 shared article)
Applications
Perceptions of Progressive Social Change and Minority Group Identification
Across the 2017 to 2025 data collection period, declining perceptions of progressive social change co-occurred with increases in LGBTQ+ group identification, group-based self-definition, and desires to preserve identity, all significant under Bonferroni correction. At the individual level, perceiving progressive change as more possible was negatively correlated with identification and identity-preservation motives, indicating that reduced optimism about social trajectories strengthens rather than weakens attachment to the minority group.
Sources: Morton & Salvatore (2026)
Perceptions of Progressive Social Change and Collective Efficacy
Perceiving progressive social change as possible correlated positively with collective efficacy among LGBTQ+ respondents, with r = .12 at the individual level. Sequential mediation analyses showed that across-time declines in these perceptions led to increases in minority identification, which subsequently predicted higher collective efficacy, suggesting that the identity consolidation prompted by pessimism about social change can partially restore efficacy beliefs.
Sources: Morton & Salvatore (2026)
Perceptions of Progressive Social Change and Emotional Outcomes
Perceiving progressive change as more possible was associated with more positive emotions and fewer negative emotions among LGBTQ+ participants, with correlations of r = .42 and r = .37 respectively. Negative emotions remained comparatively low across the study period until a sharp increase coinciding with the start of the second Trump presidency, the same period in which perceptions of progressive change reached their lowest recorded levels.
Sources: Morton & Salvatore (2026)
